When gold stock companies fail to meet analyst earnings, the share price usually drops and life moves on after investors reevaluate their investment decisions. This is the normal procedure for companies that seem to rely on the gold price as a main source of revenue. How then, one must ask, did Yamana report net earnings of $9.6 million, or $0.01 per share and not get its share price butchered. This is significantly lower than earnings of $42 million, or $0.06 per share, for the second quarter of 2008. Earnings represent a 77% drop!
The reason is simple: forecasts and unique conditions. Let us begin with the first reason of the future of the company. With a high gold price that seems to have no ceiling, the company’s revenues are expected to be quite strong in the near future. Also, the company reported production of 289,574 gold equivalent ounces at cash costs of $387 per gold equivalent ounce. The company also mined 35.6 million pounds of copper at a cost of roughly $0.91 per pound. The quarter’s production totals were lower than analyst expectations by about 30,000 gold ounces. In the next quarter Yamana will most likely make up for this downward bias in its production.
Unusual items can also plague companies, but indirectly tell a very different story about earnings. Some unusual items were present on the earnings report, such as foreign exchange losses, an unrealized loss on derivatives, stock compensation, certain revenue adjustments, tax expenses on foreign currency, and tax benefits from valuation allowances. There has been speculation in the gold industry that Yamana may soon be looking for a buyer. Their high presence of unusual items in this earnings report signals that this rumor may have some truth. If this is the case, Yamana shareholders will stand to gain with a booming gold price.
At the end of the day, we as investors must realize that no one can accurately predict the market. I have just given a hypothetical case study that shows how a negative earnings report can have a positive reaction from gold price and gold stock investors.
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